0617GMT/May 6 2025

• STALIN GLORIFIED: Another bust of Soviet dictator Josef Stalin was unveiled in a village in the Volgoda region of north-central Russia. This is the village where Stalin lived in exile between 1911-12. The village museum had already unveiled a new bust of Stalin last year. (COMMENT: The Kremlin has deliberately rehabilitated Stalin over the last decade or so, re-building his reputation as a great defender of Russia/Soviet Union and not as a tyrant who killed millions of people.)
• WILDBERRIES: Vladislav Bakalchuk, the former husband and owner of Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries, has been charged with "discrediting the Russian army". He became embroiled in a very public fall-out with his wife for control of Wilberries last year, trying to storm the central Moscow HQ with heavies hired from Chechnya. Two security guards were killed in the fracas. (COMMENT: Wildberries has become a favourite of the Kremlin, helping it to dodge sanctions and to create a sense of "normality" in Russia despite the war in Ukraine. "Discrediting the Russian army" is a catch-all charge against people the Kremlin doesn't like.)
• OIL PRICES TO FALL: Saudi Arabia said on Monday that it would increase oil production to a five-year high to punish members of the OPEC+ group that have failed to stick to production quotas – that's mainly Kazakhstan and Iraq. (COMMENT: This means that the price of oil will continue to fall, hurting Russia's economy. Economists said that on Tuesday the value of a barrel of Urals, Russia's benchmark, was worth 41% less in US dollar terms now than it was at the end of last year when the Kremlin was working out its 2025 budget.)
• ECONOMIC WOES: Russia's economy may have shrunk by 0.3% in Q1, Raiffeisenbank said, its first economic contraction since 2022. (COMMENT: Raiffeisenbank said that weak consumer demand and low oil prices had all contributed to an economic slowdown in Russia. This view lines up with other economic data showing a contraction in the Russian economy.)
• POTATO SHORTAGE: The price of potatoes in Russia has nearly doubled this year and is 400% higher than in April 2024, Russian media reported. The price rises have been put down to a shortage of locally grown potatoes due to a poor crop and rising prices linked to the soaring cost of labour in Russia as well as inflationary pressures on fuel and energy prices. (COMMENT: This sort of sky-high inflation is a major problem for the Kremlin which has massively increased its imports of potatoes. Potatoes are an important staple food in Russia, and price rises make people grumble.)
• FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS: Euroclear, based in Belgium, said on Friday that it plans to use around 3 billion euros of confiscated Russian assets to compensate European companies for assets frozen in Russia. (NOTE: This has not been done before. Previously, interest earned on frozen Russian assets was used to finance Ukraine, not to compensate European investors who had lost assets in Russia.)
• KREMLIN PROPAGANDA: The 'Immortal Regiment' element of Russia's May 9 parades will have its own logo for the first time. 'Immortal Regiment' marches are rallies by ordinary Russians in cities across the country. They march down streets carrying pictures of Red Army soldiers. (COMMENT: This is a vital part of Kremlin propaganda to connect today's war in Ukraine with the fight against Nazi Germany in the 1940s. Giving the 'Immortal regiment' a brand cements this. The new badge is a picture of St George killing the dragon, a common Russian/Moscow theme, inside a red star.)

• PUTIN'S PUNCH: Vladimir Putin said that he has to fight the urge to "punch somebody" every day. (NOTE: Putin made this candid omission during a tour of his Kremlin apartment. Excerpts released on Thursday showed a large portrait of Alexnder III, nicknamed "Peacemaker" in Putin's apartment, now, in a longer segment, Putin has said that he's a natural fighter who just wants to hit people. "I live with it but I fight it," he said.) (COMMENT: The Kremlin is playing games again, casting Putin as a born fighter who is restraining his instincts. A modern "Peacemaker".)
• SUCCESSOR TALK: Putin even made a rare remark about a potential successor during his tour of the Kremlin apartment. He said that he was "constantly thinking" about the issue but that this should be "left up to the Russian people".
• CHINESE TRIP EXTENSION: China's Pres. Xi Jinping agreed to extend his trip to Russia over Putin's May 9 Victory Day parade. He has turned it into a state visit from May 7 - 10. The Kremlin said that Xi's visit will "develop their comprehensive partnership". (COMMENT: China and Xi are Putin's most important allies. Putin wants to show this off during his biggest propaganda day of the year.)
• MAY PARADE DISRUPTION: Residents of Moscow reported that wifi and mobile phone connections have been interrupted ahead of Putin's Victory Day parade through Red Square. Planes are not allowed to fly over Moscow and many roads will be closed. (COMMENT: This is likely to be part of heavy security preparations. The Kremlin is paranoid about Ukraine drone attacks during the event. It's going to be a slow and tough week for people living in Moscow.)
• DAGESTAN VIOLENCE: Three policemen were killed in Makhachkala, the capital of Russia's southern Dagestan region, on Monday. Footage shows the policemen being dragged out of their car. They had possibly already been shot dead. (COMMENT: It's unclear what triggered the attack on the police car but the incident does highlight the tenuous hold that Russia's federal forces have over Dagestan. People living there are frustrated by the lack of opportunities, broken infrastructure and heavy recruitment of men into the Russian army. Dagestan borders Chechnya and is a Muslim region. It has become strategically important to the Kremlin because it lies on the major Iran-Russia shipping route and will become a staging post for a new Russia-Azerbaija-Iran-Pakistan-India railway route when it opens.)
• FLEEING RUSSIA: Despite an electronic tag and supposedly being under house arrest, Russian film critic and opponent of the Kremlin Yekaterina Barabash has appeared in France and claimed political asylum. She said that she had escaped by ditching her electronic tag in a forest, hiding for two weeks and then smuggling herself across the border. (NOTE: This is an embarrassment for the Kremlin which wants to make examples out of high-profile dissidents. It also shows how porous the Russian border really is.)