0625GMT/News from Russia
TRUMP-PUTIN PHONECALL: Donald Trump said on Saturday that he will call Vladimir Putin on Monday morning to discuss finding a way to end the war in Ukraine. (COMMENT: This will suit Putin, if it happens, who wants to deal with Trump and not Zelensky.)
PEACE TALKS: Mid-level government delegations from Ukraine and Russia finally met on Friday in Istanbul to discuss a peace deal, although not much was agreed in the two-hour meeting. (COMMENT: Other than signing up to the biggest prisoner swap of the war, 1,000 soldiers from each side, even a 30-day ceasefire was not agreed on. Ukrainian officials accused the Kremlin of undermining the talks because Vladimir Putin dodged coming. Russian media, though, celebrated the talks as progress and Putin as a "peacemaker". Realistically, there was never any chance that Putin would travel to Istanbul to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky. He is not interested in meeting with Zelensky. He is far more interested in a one-on-one meeting with Donald Trump to discuss Ukraine. Russian media framed the talks as a continuation of talks in 2022, which it also accused Ukraine of collapsing.)
RUSSIAN DEMANDS: At the Russia-Ukraine peace talks meeting on Friday in Istanbul, the Russian delegation demanded that all Ukrainian forces pull out of four partially-occupied regions of Ukraine before a ceasefire can be agreed. The Ukrainian side accused the Russian side of being "out of touch with reality". (COMMENT: Again, this feels like a Kremlin trap that the Ukrainian side has walked into. It's certainly a domestic PR win for the Kremlin because it can present this as "blood-thirsty Ukrainians" ignoring a peace offer even though they knew that the terms would be rejected.) (NOTE: The four regions of Ukraine that the Russian negotiating team wanted Ukraine to withdraw from were Donetsk and Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.)
RUSSIAN GOADING: Rather ominously, Vladimir Medinsky, the aide to Putin leading the Russian delegation at the peace talks, said that like Russia's war against Sweden from 1700, his boss was prepared to fight on for another 21 years in Ukraine. (COMMENT: This was probably bluster, but, even so, it is not clear that Putin does want peace.)
EU SANCTIONS: The EU on Friday at a meeting in Tirana accused Russia of not wanting peace and said that it was preparing a new round of sanctions. (COMMENT: It's difficult to see how more EU sanctions, at this stage, can impact Russia. The Kremlin has sorted out its trade and export routes, steering them away from the EU. Britain and its EU partners have promised to go after the Kremlin's shadow fleet of oil tankers, and that may apply some pressure, but this is a tough target.)
RUSSIA DETAINS ESTONIAN TANKER: Russia detained an oil tanker leaving a port in Estonia on Sunday, four days after Estonia's coastguard had tried and failed to detain a tanker sailing in the Baltic Sea towards Russia. (NOTE: The tanker is the 'Green Admire' which was sailing under a Liberian flag. (COMMENT: This is a classic move by Russia to intimidate and disorientate its opponents. Estonia has complained that Russia is acting "unpredictably" but has it? If Estonia intercepts tankers heading towards Russia, it must expect a retaliation. Columnists in Russian newspapers celebrated the Russian interception of the tanker as "Russia showing its teeth".)
ATTACKS ON JOURNALISTS: Reporters Without Borders, the Paris-based media lobby group, on Friday accused the Kremlin of firing missiles and shells at hotels being used by journalists. (NOTE: It's now too dangerous for journalists to stay in prominent hotels near the frontline.)
DRONE ATTACK: Russia launched its largest drone attack of the war against Ukraine on Sunday, Ukrainian sources said. They said that Russian forces fired 273 Shaheed drones at Ukraine. (COMMENT: This may be a signal to the West by the Kremlin that it is keen to keep the war going, rather than find a genuine peace deal.)
AGRICULTURE SLUMP: Rostselmash, Russia's largest manufacturer of heavy agriculture equipment, will close its factories for one month in June because of collapsing sales, it said on Friday. (COMMENT: This is the latest emergency measure from Rostselmash and highlights the state of agriculture in Russia. The company, based near Rostov in southern Russia, has already laid off 2,00 workers and switched to a four-day week but it appears that more drastic actions are needed. It has also said that sales of combined harvester were down by 75% and other products down by 50%.)
GEORGIAN BREAKAWAY STATES: Putin has made it easier for people living in the Georgian rebel states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to earn Russian citizenship. Under new rules, people can apply for Russian citizenship from Abkhazia and North Ossetia without living in Russia or proving they speak Russian. (COMMENT: This appears to continue the Kremlin's ploy of trying to pull in these Georgian breakaway regions more closely into its sphere of influence. At the start of May commercial passenger flights restarted between Moscow and Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia.) (NOTE: Russia recognised Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent in 2008, after it fought a war against Georgia.)