0625GMT//Putin begins bilateral talks with Xi; new monument unveiled to 'Red Terror' chief; occupied region of Ukraine runs out of fuel
RUSSIA-CHINA TALKS: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping began official bilateral talks in Beijing on Tuesday after wrapping up a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in Tianjin, north China. Putin has called Russia-China relations "unprecedented" and Xi has said that he wants to work with Putin to promote a "more just global system". (COMMENT: This is all standard fare, but the optics are still important, and they will get more intense on Wednesday when Putin and Xi watch a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan in World War II alongside Kim Jong-un, the North Korean dictator. This will be a sweet moment for Putin, standing next to his two strongest allies – but it may also alarm many ordinary Russians to see how far the war in Ukraine has crushed their Western-oriented dreams and dragged them into the arms of China and North Korea.)
SCO SUMMIT: Russia and China wrapped up the SCO with a declaration that didn't mention the war in Ukraine. Instead, the 'Tianjin Declaration' condemned civilian deaths in Palestine and the US-Israeli bombing of Iran in June and pledged to work for a "fairer multipolar" world. (COMMENT: The SCO has assumed increased importance over the past few years and is viewed by Russia and China, who lead the 10-member group, as an effective anti-Western tool. It is hinged around Central Asia but has adopted more members, such as India and Pakistan. The SCO was not expanded at this summit. A quick reminder is needed here of Russia's duplicity. A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has accused Russia of giving information on its air defence systems to Israel.)
SUPPORT FROM INDIA: Narendra Modi, India's PM, told Putin at the SCO summit that India and Russia stand "shoulder to shoulder". (COMMENT: There is no doubt that Putin has enjoyed a good SCO summit, mixing with global leaders and allies. This backing from Modi feels like the most consequential as the US has tried, and failed, to persuade India to stop buying oil from Russia.)
AVOIDING ALIYEV: Russian media confirmed that Putin did not meet with Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan's president, at the SCO summit. (COMMENT: Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have collapsed since Russian air defence systems shot down an Azerbaijani airliner on Christmas Day. This has pushed Aliyev and Azerbaijan into supporting Ukraine and the West – in other words, Putin's mishandling of the shooting down of the Azerbaijani airliner has been a diplomatic disaster for the Kremlin. He had enjoyed cosy relations with Aliyev and was relying on Azerbaijan to host part of his new trade route to India.)
MONUMENT TO RED TERROR CHIEF: A new bust of Felix Dzerzhinsky, founder of the Soviet secret police and the organiser of the "Red Terror" in the 1930s, was unveiled on Monday outside the Prosecutor's office in Vladivostok. (COMMENT: Dzerzhinsky should be hated in Russia for sending millions of people to their deaths, but there has been a Kremlin-inspired renaissance of Soviet-era statues over the past decade or so, a trend accelerated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In 2023, a replica statue of Dzerzhinsky, toppled in 1991 during the collapse of the Soviet Union, was unveiled outside Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service in Moscow.)
ASSASSINATION IN UKRAINE: Ukraine accused Russia of organising the assassination of a senior politician in Lviv last week. Ivan Vyhivskyi, Ukraine's top policeman, said that there was a "Russian trace" to the man arrested for shooting dead Andriy Parubiy, who led pro-European movements in 2004 and 2014.
JAMMING GPS ON EU CHIEF'S PLANE: The European Commission accused Russia of jamming GPS navigation equipment on a plane carrying Ursula von der Leyen, its leader, to Bulgaria on Sunday. The FT quoted unnamed officials as saying that her plane had to land at Plovdiv airport in Bulgaria using paper maps. (COMMENT: Airlines operating near the borders with Russia have accused the Kremlin of interfering with GPS navigation systems for more than a year. This appears to be part of the Kremlin's "hybrid warfare".)
DOWNGRADING GDP ESTIMATES: The Russian government has downgraded its GDP growth target this year to 1.2% from 2.5%, a source in the economy ministry told the state-owned Interfax news agency. The source said that the "economy is slowing down". (COMMENT: This backs up all the economic data coming out of Russia. Independent economists, though, go further and have said that Russia is actually in a recession already.)
RUNNING OUT OF FUEL: Fuel shortages have now been reported in parts of Ukraine occupied by Russia. The Kremlin-installed authorities in Luhansk, part of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, have admitted that there is a shortage of AI-95 and AI-92 fuel for cars. (COMMENT: Fuel shortages have been reported across Russia's Far East and are linked to crimped refining capacity due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries. This has become one of Ukraine's most effective tactics and is hurting the Russian economy.)
NEWS MATRIX:
Modi's declaration that India stands "shoulder to shoulder" with Russia feels important and surprising, especially after US pressure for India to give up buying Russian oil.
The monument to the founder of the Soviet Union's secret police is important because it shows Russia's direction of travel. In 1991, statues of Dzerzhinsky were being toppled. Now they are being erected.
As for the Putin-Xi talks, unless there is a major policy announcement, these have become fairly standard.