0635GMT/ May 9 2025

• RUSSIA-CHINA TALKS: Vladimir Putin hosted Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping on Thursday for formal talks in the Kremlin for the first time since 2023. During the talks, he invited China to set up factories in Russia and talked up Russia-China relations as hitting an "all-time high". (COMMENT: This was the photo-op that Putin had been looking forward to but despite all the back-slapping, relations between the two allies are not as smooth as they perhaps could be. Chinese investment into the Russian economy is actually fairly low and Xi is pushing hard for Russia to reduce the price of its gas exports even further. Putin wants to open up another gas pipeline to China.)
• CEASEFIRE BREAKS: Ukrainian frontline forces reported that despite promises of a ceasefire by Putin, the Russian military has continued to attack their positions. (COMMENT: Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected Putin's three-day ceasefire offer around May 9 Victory Day, calling it a PR trap.)
• US AND RUSSIAN GAS: The US has discussed helping Russian gas back into the European market, Reuters reported by quoting several witnesses. It said that a couple of scenarios had been discussed between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin's top negotiator Kirill Dmitriev. One was US business buying the gas directly from Russia and then re-selling to Europe. The other was the US buying a stake in the Nordstream pipeline that had pumped gas to Europe from Russia. (COMMENT: These negotiations highlight two important issues. The first is that Russia needs to resume gas sales to Europe. It sells gas at a heavily discounted rate to China. What it really wants is for its European sales to restart. The second important issue is that the US is clearly determined to rehabilitate Russia.)
• ECONOMIC PROBLEMS: Russian Railways reported that loading rates across its network have fallen by 8.6% in the past 12 months. This is mainly a drop in coal and oil products. (COMMENT: More stark evidence of the economic problems that Russia is facing.)
• UK SANCTIONS: The UK announced new sanctions on 100 Russian oil tankers. (NOTE: European countries have been promising more sanctions against Russia.)
• WAR WEARINESS: People in Russia are growing increasingly tired of the war in Ukraine, new polling data by the Kremlin's Levada Centre showed. It said that only 30% of respondents now favoured continuing the war, 9 percentage points less than a year ago. (COMMENT: In October I spent nearly a week in Russia and was surprised just how unpopular the war in Ukraine had become. This polling data backs up this assessment.)
• SLOVAK PM IN MOSCOW: Slovak PM Robert Fico flew into Moscow on Thursday evening ahead of Russia's military parade to celebrate defeating Nazi Germany 80 years ago. He shook hands with Serbian Pres. Alexander Vucic in Red Square. (COMMENT: It'll be seen by the Kremlin as a major PR and strategic win to host both Fico and Vucic in Moscow for Putin's military parade. They are the first European leaders to attend the parade since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine in 2022. Fico's attendance is especially important for the Kremlin as it highlights how the anti-Russia consensus in the EU is fracturing. He is the first EU leader to attend the parade since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. It is also highly likely that Fico will have a meeting with Putin. Slovakia still buys gas directly from Russia. Fico has spoken out against sanctions on Russia and has said that Russia needs to be rehabilitated. Fico also flew to Moscow to meet with Putin in December.)
• MILITARY PRODUCTION: Russia plans to expand a plant in its Altai region producing artillery shells. Analysts said that the planned expansion of the Biysk Oleum Plant will "significantly strengthen" Russia’s military. (COMMENT: Evidence, perhaps, that the Kremlin has no intention of winding down its military ambitions in Ukraine or toward Europe.)
• MILITARY PARADE: Military parades and 'Immortal Regiment' marches have started across Russia to mark the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. Putin has been using the anniversary as a major propaganda point. (NOTE: The main military parade is expected to begin at 10am in Moscow (0700GMT))