0635GMT//Putin wins Alaska talks; Smug Russian media gloats; Blast at Russian gunpowder factory kills 20
TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin met on Friday in Alaska to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine. This was their first meeting since Trump became US president for the second time. (COMMENT: The talks lasted three hours and were inconclusive. Putin dominated these talks .)
KEY MOMENT -- 1: There were several key moments during the Trump-Putin meeting. The first occurred before Putin flew into Alaska. Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, arrived in Alaska wearing a tracksuit top with the initials 'CCCP', which is Russian for USSR. (COMMENT: This was Kremlin messaging. And the message was clear – Russia sees itself as a superpower alongside the US.)
KEY MOMENT -- 2: Putin's "business as usual" agenda as he flew to Alaska was also telling. He stopped in Magadan, a city in Russia's Far East that is synonymous with hosting one of the Soviet Union's most notorious gulags. There, he toured a fish oil factory, placed a wreath at a war memorial, chatted with a children's ice hockey team and met with the regional governor. After meeting Trump in Alaska, Putin then made time to lay a wreath at a memorial for dead Russian pilots and to meet a local Russian Orthodox priest before flying back to Moscow. By contrast, Trump dashed off back to Washington. (COMMENT: The messaging this time was for ordinary Russians. This was Putin telling Russians that he was in control and that they were always foremost in his mind, even as he flew to meet the US President.)
KEY MOMENT -- 3: Then there was the "red carpet" moment. Putin appeared to wait, just a moment, before walking down the steps of his presidential jet, allowing Trump to reach the middle of the red carpet before him. Then, the world witnessed Trump clapping Putin as he walked towards him, before the two men shook hands. (COMMENT: This was the scene Putin had wanted, and he played it like a true master. This was no coincidence. The Kremlin knows how impulsive Trump is and by letting him walk to the centre of the red carpet first, they got the reaction they wanted. Here was Trump, the leader of the West, clapping Putin, whose war in Ukraine has killed hundreds of thousands of people and ruined the lives of millions. The White House appears to now recognise this as a mistake and has reportedly pressured US cable networks to drop this footage from their reports of the meeting. In Russia, footage of Trump applauding Putin has been playing on loop.)
KEY MOMENT -- 4: Next, the start of the 12-minute press conference that followed nearly three hours of talks. Putin opened the press conference, in Russian, and did most of the talking. (COMMENT: This is telling. Trump usually dominates his bilateral meetings with leaders. To allow Putin to talk first and then dominate the press conference is remarkable. He had clearly given way.)
KEY MOMENT – 5: Putin also had the last play. At the end of the press conference, in response to Trump's line to journalists that he and Putin would "see each other again soon", Putin quipped, in English, "next time in Moscow?" (COMMENT: This was a final show of dominance. Putin rarely speaks English in public, so this was a deliberate and quick reminder of just who was in charge. It was also a challenge – to come to his court. The Memo has been predicting that a second Trump-Putin meeting may have to be held in Russia, since the US hosted the first meeting in Alaska.)
KREMLIN'S MAXIMALIST PLUS NEGOTIATING POSITION: Since their meeting in Alaska, more details of a proposed peace deal to end the war in Ukraine have emerged. The focus has been on Putin's demands for Russia to control all of the Donbas region, including areas that it doesn't already control. (COMMENT: Headlines in Western media have regarded this as a shocking demand but it shouldn't be. This is straight out of the standard Kremlin negotiating handbook, which advocates setting out a "maximalist plus" initial negotiating position and then scaling it back to appear reasonable and give the impression that you are negotiating in good faith.)
RUSSIAN MEDIA SEE MAJOR PUTIN WIN: Russian media portrayed the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska as a clear win for the Kremlin. It reported that Trump had given Putin everything he had asked for – including dodging imposing a ceasefire and, apparently, accepting Putin's demands to control all of Donbas. (COMMENT: There is almost a smugness to the Russian reaction to the talks and just how easily Putin outplayed Trump. The issue of persuading the US to drop demands for a ceasefire in Ukraine in favour of a full peace deal was seen as a particularly big win for Putin. In practical terms, this is particularly cynical as it allows Putin's armies to continue to smash into Ukraine's forces while a more complicated peace deal is thrashed out.)
GUNPOWDER FACTORY BLAST KILLS 20: An explosion on Saturday at a gunpowder factory in Ryazan, 200 miles southeast of Moscow, killed at least 20 people and injured 130.
SINGING FOR KIM: Shaman, the pro-war Russian pop singer, performed in front of North Korean dictator Kim Jung-un in Pyongyang on Saturday to mark the defeat of Japan in World War II. (COMMENT: This highlights just how far Russia-North Korea relations have strengthened since Kim started giving the Kremlin weapons, soldiers and labourers to support its invasion of Ukraine.)
TRUMP-PUTIN TALKS NEWS MATRIX:
Putin's utter dominance of Trump at the Alaska talks was more total and more surprising than analysts had expected. Yes, it was likely that Putin would give Trump a good run for his money but to come away with near total domination was a shock. This was best summed up at the start of the talks with the sight of Trump clapping Putin along the red carpet. Imagine how that felt in Ukraine.
Putin's demand for control of all of Donbas was not a surprise. This has been well-flagged up and is part of the Kremlin's "maximalist plus" negotiating position. As was the Kremlin's refusal to countenance a ceasefire ahead of a peace deal.