0645GMT/May 1 2025
PRO-WAR PROPAGANDA: Busts of Daria Dugina, a Russian journalist killed by a car bomb outside Moscow in August 2022, and her nationalist philosopher father, Alexander Dugin, have been installed in a new exhibition in a central Moscow park. (NOTE: The exhibition supports Putin's war in Ukraine and the busts of Dugina and Dugin are given the most prominent positions.) (COMMENT: This is another example of the wall of pro-war propaganda that has seeped into everyday Russian life since Putin's invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.)
NIGHTCLUB RAIDS: Police in Moscow raided several nightclubs and detained partygoers for promoting LGBT propaganda. (NOTE: The Russian authorities have been waging a low-level war against nightclubs and bars in Russia. They consider many of them as meeting points for people opposed to the war in Ukraine and Putin. Accusing bars and nightclubs of promoting now-banned LGBT propaganda is a way of closing them down.)
RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA BRIDGE: Russia and North Korea started building the first road bridge across the Tumen River in what Russian PM Mikhail Mishustin said was a "landmark stage" in relations. Reports said the 850m bridge will be operating by summer 2026. (COMMENT: Currently, the only connection between Russia and North Korea is a railway bridge. It's unclear how this new bridge will be used – whether we will see Russian families day-tripping into North Korea or just military vehicles trundling across it – but it is still a significant development. All week, Vladimir Putin and senior Russian officials have been thanking North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un for his help in sending 15,000 conscripts to fight Ukraine forces in the Kursk region.)
MAY 9 PARADE: Indian PM Narendra Modi has decided against turning up at Vladimir Putin's May 9 military parade in Moscow but Chinese leader Xi Jinping will attend for the first time since 2015. (NOTE: No official reason for Modi's cancellation was given, although an Indian diplomatic source said that it was linked to rising tension with Pakistan.) (COMMENT: Even though Modi visited Putin in the Kremlin in July last year, being seen at a Russian military parade on Red Square is another level of intensity. Modi may see this as a good dodge.)
ARAB DIPLOMACY: Putin met with the UAE's deputy PM Saif bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Moscow on Wednesday afternoon. (COMMENT: Even though this is not a top-ranking official, it is still significant to see a senior UAE official in the Kremlin meeting with Putin. The UAE, supposedly a Western ally, rolled out the Red Carpet for Putin on a trip to Dubai in 2023. UAE leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan also travelled to Moscow in October last year. It's just another reminder that Putin is not seen as a pariah outside of Europe.)
ECONOMY DOWNGRADE Russia's finance ministry on Wednesday downgraded government income for 2025 by 4.5% because of a drop in the price of oil. It also tripled the size of Russia's deficit in 2025 to 1.7% of GDP from 0.5%. (COMMENT: The Russian budget downgrades highlight the importance of oil to Russian government revenues. The Russian finance ministry's new budget now considers the average price of oil in 2025 to be $56/barrel, not $69.7/barrel.)
LOANS TO INDUSTRY: Russian banks have started handing out government-backed preferential loans to SMEs that produce machine tools and robotics. (COMMENT: These loans have a heavily discounted interest rate repayment and are designed to incentivise work in industries that the Kremlin considers vital for its war in Ukraine. The Kremlin approved the preferential loan policy for handpicked industries in April.)
WESTERN BUSINESS PREPARES TO RETURN: Western commodity traders, insurers and shipping groups have been asking lawyers how best to structure their businesses to operate in Russia once again, the FT reported on Wednesday. (COMMENT: The interest from Western businesses in working in Russia has been triggered by Trump's appeasement of Putin and Russia. Western business expects a peace deal in Ukraine and then sanctions to be dropped against Russia.)
ARMENIA AND THE EU: The Kremlin will increase influence campaigns in Armenia ahead of a parliamentary election scheduled there in 2026, Russian media reported. It said that Sergei Kiriyenko, deputy head of the Presidential Administration and one of Putin's most trusted lieutenants, has been tasked with "advancing Russia's soft power interests" in Armenia. (COMMENT: The Kremlin is rolling up its sleeves on Armenia which has begun an integration process to join the EU. The Kremlin hates former Soviet states weakening relations to move closer to the EU.) (NOTE: See more in next week's Central Asia & South Caucasus Bulletin for more on this story >> www.thebulletin.news.)
SOLDIER KILLS FAMILY: A Russian soldier in Russia's southern Kursk region broke into a house at midnight on Wednesday morning, shooting a man and a woman. The woman reportedly died and the man is in a coma. He then kidnapped their two young daughters but was later detained. The Russian Army said that the rogue soldier was either on drugs or drunk. (NOTE: The residents of Kursk regularly complain about drunk Russian soldiers and the dangers that they pose.) (COMMENT: This sort of incident is not unusual in contemporary Russia, where doctors are warning of an epidemic of PTSD-related attacks once soldiers start to return from the war in Ukraine.)