0652GMT/News from Russia
TRUMP-PUTIN PHONE CALL: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin on Monday afernoon held their third phone call this year focused on finding a route to ending the war in Ukraine. (NOTE: The previous phone conversations between Putin and Trump were on Feb. 12 and March 18. Joe Biden didn't speak to Putin during the war in Ukraine.)
Putin described the conversation as "meaningful, frank and very useful" and that they were "generally on the right track". He also said that Russia would work on building towards a ceasefire with Ukraine. (COMMENT: Ignore the platitude about working with Ukraine towards a ceasefire. Putin wants to deal directly with Trump and not with Zelensky.)
Trump later confirmed his good-natured talks with Putin and said that work had now "immediately" begun on putting together a ceasefire and even a "complete end" to the war in Ukraine. He said that his conversation with Putin had been "very good" and was looking forward to US-Russia trade after the end of the war. (COMMENT: This will all please Putin, who has once again appeared to persuade Trump that Russia is the aggrieved party in the war in Ukraine.)
Yuri Ushakov, Putin's top foreign policy aide, also gave his analysis of the phone conversation. He said that Putin and Trump had talked for 2 hours and 5 minutes on the phone. He said that Putin congratulated Trump on the birth of his 11th grandson. (COMMENT: Slick preparation here by Putin and his team.) Ushakov then said that Trump had described Russia as "one of the most important partners" for the US. Ushakov said: "President Trump spoke quite emotionally about the prospects of these relations. He has repeatedly emphasised that he is in favour of mutually respectful and mutually beneficial relations with Russia, given its role in the world, given the place it occupies in the economy. (COMMENT: This was worth repeating in full as it really highlights, from a Russian viewpoint, just how positive the Trump Administration's view on Russia is.) Importantly, Ushakov also added that neither Trump nor Putin had discussed a timeframe for a ceasefire or peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. (COMMENT: This is important for Putin because it allows him the space to posture as a "peacemaker" but avoid actually signing up for a deal any time soon.)
The Putin-Trump telephone call played heavily in Russian media this morning. They generally presented it as more evidence that Putin is pushing for peace in Ukraine. Russian media carried AI-generated photos of Trump and Putin splitting a map of Ukraine. (COMMENT: The message is clear in Russian media. Ukraine is not needed for a peace deal as it's Putin and Trump who hold real power and will be able to agree on the deal between themselves. Europe and Ukraine are constantly painted as the real warmongerers by the Russian media.)
ECONOMIC PROBLEMS: Mortgage lending in Russia has collapsed. Russian news agencies quoted official data on Monday as showing that the number of new mortgages handed out from January - May had fallen by 48% compared to the same period in 2024. They also reported that the total value of mortgages handed out in Russia during this period was down by 41%. (COMMENT: No major surprises here, but this is important evidence of the economic problems facing Russia and also the impact of its sky-high interest rate of 21%. The Central Bank was forced to jack up its interest last year to protect the value of the rouble. The major hope for mortgage owners and economists is that with the rouble now at around 80/$1, rather than 110/$1, there is now some headroom to cut interest rates.)
LAVROV TO ARMENIA: Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, is due to fly into Armenia today to meet with government officials, and possibly PM Nikol Pashinyan. (COMMENT: This is part of the Kremlin's charm/pressure influence campaign to try to keep the country from drifting further towards the EU.)
SMUGGLING TO RUSSIA: Polish customs officers on the border with Belarus seized 5 tonnes of Boeing aircraft tyres being smuggled by truck into Russia. Reports said that the sender of the tyres was a company registered in Spain and the recipient was a company in Azerbaijan. (COMMENT: Russia is desperate for new tyres for its fleet of Boeing aircraft. This story also shows just how integrated the smuggling operation to get kit out to Russia has become. The Kremlin uses countries such as Azerbaijan and other former Soviet Union states to re-export products to Russia.)
APARTMENT MURDER: Russian media reported that a former Wagner mercenary fighter has been arrested for murdering his colleague in the town of Ufa. Apparently, he killed the man in an argument in their apartment. Police intervened several days later after neighbours complained of the terrible stench. The Wagner fighter, according to reports, had been recruited into Wagner from prison, where he had been serving time for murder. (COMMENT: These sorts of reports are becoming more frequent and highlight the chaotic dystopia that Russia is confronting with the return of hundreds of thousands of war veterans from Ukraine with major PTSD. Many of these are also murderers and rapists freed after serving a six-month tour in Ukraine.)