0653GMT//Putin flies to China for summit with allies; state smartphone eavesdropping messenger becomes obligatory; recession looms
PUTIN FLIES TO CHINA FOR SCO SUMMIT: Vladimir Putin on Sunday flew into Tianjin in northern China for a two-day summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). He will then stay on for an official two-day state visit to Beijing, which will include watching a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the defeat of Japan in World War II. (COMMENT: This is Putin's first trip to China since May 2024. China is his most important ally, and the SCO summit gives him the chance to posture in front of up to 21 allies.)
RUSSIA/CHINA-LED SCO GROWS: Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping said that the Russia/China-led SCO was now a "formidable world force". It is focused on Central Asia but also includes several other countries as members. Its full membership is: China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus. There are also several observer states such as Turkey, Malaysia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. (COMMENT: The SCO has often been dubbed an "eastern Nato". This is not entirely true. While it does hold wargames in Central Asia, its main drive has been economic and political. Both Russia and China have used the SCO to spread political influence.)
PUTIN TALKS UP ANTI-WEST CLUB: Putin used his opening speech at the SCO to praise China and the benefits of a "multi-polar world". He also talked up Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (COMMENT: There is nothing unexpected here. Putin sees clubs like the SCO and BRICS as opportunities to build alliances that he feels will back his anti-West stance.)
PUTIN MEETS WITH ARMENIAN PM AT SCO: Kremlin officials told Russian media that Putin had met with Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia's PM, on the sidelines of the SCO summit in China, but had not yet met with Azerbaijani Pres. Ilham Aliyev to address "notably cooling relations". (COMMENT: The Kremlin is dealing with a diplomatic meltdown in the South Caucasus. Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace deal last month, watched over by Donald Trump, undermining Russian influence in the region; Pashinyan has said he wants Armenia to join the EU; Aliyev has started supporting Ukraine since Russia-Azerbaijan relations collapsed. Putin needs to work hard and fast to salvage these important relations.)
INDIAN PM VISITS CHINA FOR SCO: Russian newspapers heavily played up the trip to China by Indian PM Narendra Modi, his first for seven years. They said that relations between India and China were improving because both were being pressured by US trade sanctions. (COMMENT: This plays into the Kremlin's narrative of an overbearing US crushing countries that won't do its bidding. This allows the Kremlin to push the benefits of its "anti-West club".)
PUTIN TO TRAVEL TO INDIA: The Kremlin said on Sunday that Putin will travel to India in December, his first state visit since 2021. (COMMENT: Russia-India relations have grown closer since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. India has become an important buyer of Russian oil and appears willing to stand up to US trade pressure.)
PUTIN TO SACK KEY AIDE: Putin appears ready to demote Dmitry Kozak as deputy head of the Presidential Administration and one of his envoys to occupied parts of Ukraine. On Friday, he officially merged two units in the Presidential Administration -- the department for interregional and cultural regions and the department for cross-border relations -- that had reported to Kozak into the new department for strategic partnership and cooperation. This new department will report to Sergei Kiriyenko, also deputy head of the Presidential Administration. (COMMENT: Kozak had been considered a Putin insider, but he has been sidelined since the war in Ukraine. A source told the New York Times that Kozak had been one of the only high-ranking officials to oppose the war in Ukraine. It is no surprise that Kiriyenko has been given Kozak's portfolio. He is one of Putin's favourites and has been trusted to oversee Kremlin influence campaigns in Georgia and Armenia. He is also often photographed at Kremlin events in occupied parts of Ukraine.)
WHITE GOODS SALES FALL: M.Video, Russia's largest electronic goods retailer, reported sales down 12% in the first half of the year. It blamed Russia's "cooling" economy for the downturn. (COMMENT: Many Russians buy fridges, washing machines and other white goods on credit, making M.Video vulnerable to high interest rates. Russia's interest rate is at 18%, down from 21% earlier this year.)
STATE EAVESDROPPING MESSEGNER NOW OBLIGATORY: From Sept. 1 it has become mandatory in Russia for all new smartphones to be installed with the Russian state's new Max instant messaging system. (COMMENT: Critics have complained that Max is a Kremlin surveillance tool.)
DATA POINTS TO ECONOMIC RECESSION: Russia's economy is now in recession, Russia's state development bank VEB has said. It said that after two years of growth of around 4%, fuelled by war-linked production, GDP fell by 0.6% in the second quarter of the year. This follows a drop of 0.6% in the first quarter of the year. (COMMENT: This hasn't officially been confirmed by the Kremlin, but in many ways, VEB is an extension of the Russian state.)