0654GMT//Russian media boast of "winning war" with Trump-Putin meeting; Russia sidelined in the S.Caucasus

TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Alaska on Aug. 15. This will be their first meeting since Trump was re-elected as US Pres. last year. (COMMENT: Russian media is promoting the meeting as a major win for Putin. It crows that Volodymyr Zelensky and the EU have been frozen out of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. In many ways, this is Putin's favoured scenario playing out: one-on-one negotiations with Trump to end the war. Predictably, EU leaders and Zelensky have complained .)

Putin will be the first Russian leader to fly to Alaska. The Kremlin has said that the location is symbolically important as this is the region where Russia and the US are geographically closest. They are separated by the Bering Strait, only 50 miles wide at its narrowest point. (COMMENT: Hosting this Trump-Putin meeting on US territory also sets up the prospect of a second meeting in Russia.)

Kremlin officials have told Russian media that Putin will demand international recognition of Crimea and control of all of the Donbas region in return for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The fate of Ukraine's Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, which the Kremlin now partially controls, is less clear. The Kremlin also said that this meeting is the result of "many hours" of phone calls between the leaders. (COMMENT: This clearly sets up the Kremlin's preferred narrative of a Trump-Putin "bromance".)

The Kremlin said that since Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff was in Moscow last Wednesday, Putin has spoken on the phone with the leaders of China and India. (COMMENT: This is a power play, reminding the US of Russia's international alliances.)

INDIA-RUSSIA RELATIONS: India cancelled plans to buy US weapons and a visit by its defence minister to Washington after the US imposed extra sanctions on India for buying Russian crude oil, Reuters reported on Friday. It also said that India may be open to "scaling back" its purchases of Russian oil if it can buy similar quantities from the US or elsewhere. (COMMENT: India has become the largest buyer of Russian crude oil since the start of the war in Ukraine. This reaction from India shows both the strength of India-Russia relations and their fragility. Strength, because India is prepared to stand up – to some extent at least – to US tariffs. Indian PM Narendra Modi also said that he had also held a phone call with Putin, calling him a "good friend". Weakness, because India has hinted that it would swap oil purchases from Russia with oil purchases from the US.)

Bloomberg has already reported that some state-owned Indian refineries have stopped buying oil from Russia. It also reported that, instead, Russia is offering oil it would have sold to India to China at a discounted price.

KREMLIN LOSES SOUTH CAUCASUS: Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace deal on Friday in Washington with Trump to end their more than three-decade-old conflict. (COMMENT: This is far more than a peace deal. This is a major humiliation for the Kremlin and a major win for the West. By signing their peace deal with Trump, both the Azerbaijani President. Ilham Aliyev and Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan have essentially declared themselves to be allies of the West. They have a tricky path to negotiate, but both leaders want to leave Russia's sphere of influence. Azerbaijan-Russia relations have collapsed since Russian air defence systems shot down an Azerbaijani airliner on Christmas Day. Armenia has blamed Russia for failing to defend it against Azerbaijani aggression and wants to join the EU.)

Azerbaijan-Russia relations fractured again on Friday when a Russian missile hit a gas compressor station operated by Socar, the Azerbaijani state oil and gas company, in Odesa. Azerbaijan has since threatened to supply weapons to Ukraine. (COMMENT: This is a new low in relations, even though both countries need each other. Azerbaijan needs Russian gas to fulfil contracts with Europe. Russia needs Azerbaijan as a vital link in its new supply chain route to India. Only last summer, Putin and Aliyev enjoyed a cosy dinner together on the Caspian Sea shore. Russian media has now started describing Aliyev as "an ally" of Zelensky.)

KREMLIN HIDES DATA: The Kremlin has classified more than 425 demographic and economic data streams since the beginning of the year, exiled Russian journalists have said. They said that the data has been made secret to hide declines in birth rates and worsening economic conditions. (COMMENT: This certainly fits the narrative of a secretive Kremlin shutting down data that may challenge its official narrative.)

EXPLOSION AT BAKING SODA PLANT: At least 36 people were injured in an explosion at the Urals-based Bashkir baking soda plant, the biggest in Russia, on Saturday. (COMMENT: Safety standards in Russia, already lax, are being cut to streamline industry against an economic downturn, Western sanctions and labour shortages.)

AVIATION MANUFACTURING PROBLEMS: Russian aircraft manufacturers have produced only one of 15 promised passenger jets this year, according to industry data. (COMMENT: Western sanctions have dried up the flow of vital components to Russia's aviation industry and, despite the Kremlin's bluster, this has hit production plans.)

ROAD BUILDING SLOWS: Sales of road building equipment fell by 45% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2024, Russian industry data showed. Industry insiders blamed poor house-building and road-building demand linked to economic conditions, high interest rates and a flood of cheap Chinese kit. (COMMENT: This is more evidence of the decline in Russia's economic situation.)

TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING NEWS MATRIX:

Of the news since Thursday that Trump and Putin are going to meet, the most surprising is that this meeting will take place in Alaska. It's symbolically important as Alaska lies only a short distance from Russia. It also sets up the intriguing possibility of a return meeting in Russia. Putin last visited the US in 2015.

Unsurprisingly, Russian media has presented the meeting as a win for Putin, and the EU and Ukraine have both complained.

Also unsurprisingly, but possibly of less importance, is that Putin phoned Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping to brief him on the meeting. This had to be expected as Xi is Putin's most important ally.