0654GMT//Trump wants trilateral peace talks; Russian missile hits Azerbaijani gas infrastructure in Odesa; Russian military recruitment falls
PEACE TALKS: After meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky and several European leaders in the White House, Donald Trump telephoned Vladimir Putin to ask for a trilateral meeting. Yuri Ushakov, Putin's top aide, said the telephone conversation lasted 40 minutes. US media even reported that Trump hopes that this meeting will happen before the end of August. (COMMENT: This is a potentially significant step towards a peace deal for Ukraine, but, and this is important, there hasn't been any acknowledgement from Russia of a potential trilateral meeting.)
RUSSIAN MISSILE STRIKES AZERBAIJANI EQUIPMENT: A Russian missile hit oil and gas infrastructure in Odesa owned by Socar, Azerbaijan's state energy company, for the second time in 10 days. (COMMENT: The Kremlin appears to be targeting Socar for agreeing a gas supply deal with Ukraine. Russia-Azerbaijan relations have collapsed since Russian air defence systems shot down an Azerbaijani airliner on Christmas Day. Azerbaijani Pres. Ilham Aliyev has promised to start supplying Ukraine with weapons if Russia targets its oil and gas infrastructure in Ukraine.)
MILITARY RECRUITMENT: Recruitment into the Russian army fell by 59% in Q2 2025, Russian opposition media has reported by quoting government data. Important Stories said that 38,000 men signed up to the Russian Army between April and June, down from 93,000 in the same period last year. (COMMENT: It's not entirely clear why recruitment numbers have fallen so heavily. Regions have reduced signing-on bonuses, which may have hit recruitment numbers. There may also be a general fatigue.)
CAR MANUFACTURING CRISIS: AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest car manufacturer, needs a state bailout to stop it going bankrupt, the governor of the Samara region has said. AvtoVAZ's largest manufacturing plant is based in the city of Tolyatti, in Samara. Vyacheslav Fedorishchev, the Samara governor, said AvtoVAZ was shifting workers to part-time. (COMMENT: The decline of AvtoVAZ is a very visible sign of the economic problems facing Russia. In June, AvtoVAZ said that it was looking at a 20-25% fall in car sales this year and these were already down on previous years. It employs 40,000 people directly in Tolyatti.)
OIL REFINERY ATTACK: Russia has closed its fourth major oil refinery this year after a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukrainian drones hit the Syzran oil refinery in Samara region on Friday. Media has reported that it will take at least a month to repair the damage. (COMMENT: Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries in Russia have been one of its most successful tactics. Estimates have said that these attacks have knocked out around 14% of Russia's oil refining capacity -- pushing up fuel costs and hitting the economy.)
GUNPOWDER FACTORY BLAST: The death toll after an explosion at a gunpowder plant in Ryazan, 200 miles southeast of Moscow, on Saturday has now reached 25. At least 158 people were injured in the blast.
NEWS MATRIX:
News that Trump has proposed trilateral peace talks with Putin and Zelensky is clearly important. It's also something of a surprise as it shows how quickly the process is now moving. Importantly, there has not been any official response from the Kremlin yet.
Another surprise is the scale of the fall in Russian military recruitment in Q2. A smaller drop wouldn't have been a surprise, but recruitment is down by 60%.
Far less surprising are problems at Russia's largest car manufacturer and a second missile strike on Azerbaijani oil and gas infrastructure in Odesa in 10 days. The missile strike is dangerous as Azerbaijan has threatened to respond by supplying weapons to Ukraine.