0658GMT//Kremlin dodges helping 'ally' Iran after US strike; Taliban makes migrant worker deal with Russia
IRAN BOMBING REACTION: The Kremlin criticised the US bombing raid against Iran as "irresponsible and illegal" but didn't offer Tehran any actual support. (COMMENT: Other than speaking out against US and Israeli bombing runs against Iran, there is not much that Russia can do. There is probably not too much that Vladimir Putin wants to do, either. Although Russia and Iran signed an upgraded alliance deal this year, Russian commentators have described it as a "strategic deal" and not a military one. The Kremlin needed Iranian drone and missile supplies in 2022 and 2023 but this was a transactional deal. It needs Iran far less now that its own weapons production is up and running and North Korea is sending arms. Plus, the Kremlin's trust in Iran was badly damaged in Syria last year when it accused Iranian military advisers of fleeing rebel advances. Instead, by remaining on the sidelines and not doing very much, the Kremlin possibly sees the attacks on Iran as a way to patch up damaged relations with Israel and maintain improving ties with the US.)
A key indicator of the Kremlin's reticence to make any substantial moves towards protecting Iran is that Putin hasn't personally commented. He had ample opportunity to comment during his Q&A session at the end of the St Petersburg Economic Forum on Friday, but he didn't. (COMMENT: This is very telling. What Putin says and doesn't say in public matters.)
The price of oil rose again after the US air strike against Iran on Saturday. Iran responded by closing a shipping channel in the Persian Gulf. Oil is now at its highest level since January – up roughly 20% since Israel launched its bombing runs against Iran 10 days ago. (COMMENT: This is good news for the Kremlin as oil and gas sales make up around a third of its revenues.)
ST PETERSBURG FORUM: Vladimir Putin used his final speech and Q&A session of the St Petersburg Economic Forum on Friday to promote the BRICS economic group and claim, once again, that Ukrainians and Russians are the same people. (COMMENT: Nothing new in this. Putin has tried to remake BRICS since Russia held its chair last year as an anti-Western block. He has failed, frankly, to spark much interest.)
Sitting alongside Putin at the final session of the St Petersburg Forum were Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang, Bahraini royal Nasser bin Hamad Al-Khalifa and South African Deputy President Paul Mashatile. (COMMENT: This was a Kremlin attempt to show that Russia is not isolated, although, with this panel, it is unclear how successful that messaging was.)
TALIBAN WORKERS DEAL: The Taliban signed a deal with Russian officials at the St Petersburg Economic Forum to send thousands of migrant workers to Russia to work on construction sites, Russian media reported. (COMMENT: Look at this story as an economic insight into the state of Russia. There is a major labour shortage in Russia because of its war in Ukraine. It is importing thousands of workers from North Korea but needs thousands more to supplement workers from Central Asia. Russia's took the Taliban off its terrorist list earlier this year.)
BELARUS RELEASES PRISONERS: Belarus Pres. Alexander Lukashenko released opposition leader Sergey Tikhanovsky and 13 other prisoners after negotiations with Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump's personal envoy to the region. Tikhanovsky was one of the main leaders of a 2020 uprising. His wife, Svetlana, has been leading Belarusian opposition groups from exile in Lithuania since his arrest. (COMMENT: It is highly likely that Putin would have approved this prisoner release. Read this as a goodwill gesture by the Kremlin and a nod towards improving relations with the US.)
NORTH KOREAS STUDENTS: Russia will host more North Korean students at its universities, according to Russian media. (COMMENT: North Korea already sends a handful of students to Russia. This increase is in line with improving relations between Russia and North Korea linked to military support that North Korean dictator Kim Jung-Un has given to the Kremlin. Education has been an important part of the Kremlin's diplomatic outreach since the Soviet Union.)
UKRAINE MISSILE STRIKE: A Russian missile strike overnight on Kyiv hit a residential building, killing six people and injuring at least 20.
RUSSIAN WHISKY: There is now more Russian-made whisky in Russian shops than imported whisky, Russian producers told Russian media. They said that 51% of Russian whisky was now produced inside Russia, compared with 19% in 2021 before the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. (COMMENT: This data is rough and it is unclear how accurate it is but the trend is accurate. Russia still imports luxury goods but home-made replacements have surged.)
SCHOOL PROPAGANDA: Putin on Saturday inspected a series of new history textbooks for schools, praising them for finally telling the truth about Russian "greatness". (COMMENT: This has been a major project for Putin who set one of his most reliable lieutenants, Vladimir Medinsky, the task of rewriting school textbooks to promote Putin's version of history.)
NEWS MATRIX:
Of the four stories in today's News Matrix, three were rated as 'important'. Of these, the Kremlin's lack of any help for its Iranian "allies" under US and Israeli bombardment is the most important. Belarus releasing political prisoners also has to be viewed in the context of a US-Russia detente and a potential peace deal for Ukraine. It is important, too. The Taliban's deal to send migrant workers to Russia was an eye-catching surprise. The Kremlin is desperate for more labour.