0702GMT// Trump criticises Putin; Russian stocks drop

TRUMP CRITICISES PUTIN: Donald Trump on Monday backtracked on his praise of Putin by calling him "completely crazy" for launching a mass drone strike against Ukraine the night before that killed 13 people. He even said that Putin's aggression will " lead to the fall of Russia". (COMMENT: Trump changes his tune on a range of subjects overnight and Putin and Russia. This is more of the same, it feels, and shouldn't be taken as a genuine policy change towards Russia.)
STOCKS FALL: But Russian stock markets disagreed. The main stock market fell by 2% on Monday after Trump called Putin "crazy" and threatened new sanctions. (COMMENT: This shows how fragile Russian investor confidence is. The biggest faller was Russia's largest shipping fleet, Sovcomflot, down 5%.)
PUTIN 'NOT INTERESTED' IN PEACE: Putin has no intention of negotiating peace and will instead push to capture more Ukrainian territory, the Moskovsky Kommsomolets newspaper reported by quoting "Russian security insiders". The article said that Putin had become convinced that following the wishes of ordinary Russians was more important than listening to the whims of Trump. (COMMENT: This is, of course, not gospel but it does indicate, again, the direction of travel for Russia.)
ZELENSKY'S LEGITIMACY: Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, said that the "issue of legitimacy" would be critical around the signing of a peace deal with Ukraine. (COMMENT: This is a clear dig at Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president. Putin hates him and wants him away from the Ukrainian presidency. He may have an ally here in Trump, who has also made it clear that he would prefer for Zelensky to stand down.)
ARMS SALES: In a speech at Russia's military-technical commission, Putin said that Russia remained among the top five arms exporters in the world. (NOTE: This is important because Russia's arms exports had taken a hit after its invasion of Ukraine when Russia-manufactured arms performed poorly and Russia was considered a pariah state.
AMMONIA SALES TO THE EU: Despite its staunchly anti-Russia stance, Lithuania has continued to buy ammonia from Russia. Lithuanian National Radio and Television reported that Lithuanian fertiliser producer Achema has bought nearly 160 million euros worth of ammonia in the past three years from Russia. (COMMENT: Although the EU tried to cut all business links with Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, in reality, this was always a lofty ambition. Most imports have been cut but others continue. Achema's ammonia imports are a clear example of this, as are French and Spanish-Russian LNG imports. The ammonia is imported by rail through Belarus. LTG, a subsidiary of Lithuania's railway company, said that the EU does not ban ammonia imports from Russia.)
GAS EXPORTS: Serbia extended its gas import deal with Russia to September at a 25% discount to global prices. (COMMENT: This deal shows the discounts that the Kremlin is having to offer its gas customers. Reports said that Serbia will pay $330/1,000 cubic metres compared to a global price of around $435. This is still not as low as the roughly $250/1,000 cubic metres that China pays for its gas imports from Russia.)
SHADOW FLEET: Russia has begun providing its "shadow fleet" of oil tankers with naval escorts as they sail through the Baltic Sea, said Finland's defence minister, Antti Hakkanen. (NOTE: This appears to be a response to a near-interception earlier this month of a Russian "shadow tanker" by an Estonian naval vessel. The Kremlin also scrambled a Russian fighter jet to buzz the standoff – perhaps the most serious in the Baltic Sea since the start of the war. Russia has also started building up its army on the border with Finland, although even Finnish military analysts have said that it will be years before the force is big enough to pose any real threat.)
FINNISH AIR SPACE INFRINGEMENT: The Finnish foreign ministry on Monday summoned the Russian ambassador to make a formal complaint about two Russian fighter jets entering its air space without permission. (COMMENT: Tension between Finland and Russia is rising and needs to be monitored.)
PUTIN'S HELICOPTER 'ATTACKED': Vladimir Putin's helicopter was attacked by Ukrainian drones in Russia's southern Kursk region last week, said Major-General Yuri Dashkin, commander of Russia's air defence division. Dashkin said that his units had to fight off the drones with "anti-aircraft combat". (COMMENT: This could well be self-important nonsense, it's hard to tell. The Kremlin likes to inflate stories about Putin's daring-do to impress his constituents.)
POW SWAP: Russia and Ukraine on Sunday completed a 1,000 for 1,000 PoW swap, the largest of the war. (NOTE: This was the only major agreement from Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul this month.)