0725GMT//Ukraine's drone ambush; a fake Putin danger story

(NOTE: Please allow images to download so that you can see our new 'News Matrix' at the bottom of this memo.)

UKRAINIAN DRONE AMBUSH: Ukrainian drones popped out of containers on trucks across Russia on Sunday and destroyed several of the Kremlin's long-range strategic bombers. Video showed the roofs of the containers sliding back and hidden drones lifting off and speeding towards remote airfields in the Arctic and Siberia that the Kremlin thought were out of range of Ukrainian drones. The first-person drones were then able to take their time and pick the weak spots in their targets before destroying them. (COMMENT: James Bond, eat your heart out. Ukraine has pulled off another extraordinary feat of daring and ingenuity to strike and embarrass the Kremlin. It has also humiliated Russia on the eve of the next round of peace talks in Istanbul .)

Reports said that unwitting truck drivers were paid to drive the containers across Russia and then told to stop in specific laybys. When the time came, the drones were activated remotely. The roof pulled back and the drones lifted out to strike their target.

An estimated 41 Russian "strategic aircraft" were struck, including several Tu-95M and Tu-22M3 bombers, according to Ukraine's SBU intelligence service. It said that this is a third of Russia's bomber fleet, an estimated value of $7 billion. Also damaged was at least one A-50 early warning aircraft. The Ukrainian drones hit bases near Murmansk in the Arctic, at Ryazan and Ivanovo near Moscow and near Irkutsk in Siberia. (COMMENT: Russia has improved its defences against drones over the past couple of years and may have backed itself to destroy long-range drones flying thousands of kilometres across the country from Ukraine. What it didn't count on were truck ambushes next to its bases.)

Ukraine's SBU intelligence service said that Operation Spiders Web had been planned for 18 months. The drones were smuggled into Russia and stored in the hollow roofs of mobile containers. These mobile containers were then sent on trucks across Russia. Their roofs retracted remotely to allow the drones to attack their targets. Photos from Ukraine showed Vladimir Zelensky smiling and congratulating his commanders. He said that 117 drones were used in the attack, which was executed from inside Russia.

Influential Russian military bloggers were furious at Ukraine's drone attack against remote airbases in Russia. They called it a "black day for Russian aviation", described it as a "serious blow" and complained of "serious errors". They generally complain when Russian bases are attacked, blaming commanders for sloppiness and laziness. And they have complained about this sort of drone attack on undefended air bases behind their own lines before, calling for anti-drone shelters to be built.

PEACE TALKS: Russia's peace negotiating team arrived in Istanbul late on Sunday evening headed by Vladimir Medinsky, Putin's former culture minister. He looked furious in the video, slamming his car door and brushing off journalists' questions about the Ukrainian drone attack. (NOTE: The demands of the negotiating teams don't appear to have changed.)

BRIDGE COLLAPSE: A road bridge in Russia's western Bryansk region collapsed onto a railway track on Saturday evening as a heavy goods truck drove over it. The Moscow commuter train derailed, killing several people. (NOTE: The cause of the Bryansk bridge collapse is unclear, although Russian media heavily reported that it was a Ukrainian sabotage attack. Russian officials also reported an explosion. It's worth pointing out that Ukrainian drones have generally concentrated on striking military or industrial targets, not civilian transport infrastructure. This story has played out widely in Russian media which blamed Ukraine for the "terrorist attack".)

FAKE PUTIN STORY: The Kremlin fabricated a story about Putin's helicopter dodging Ukrainian drones last week during his trip to the Kursk region earlier in May, four Kremlin sources told the Moscow Times. They said that the Kremlin wanted to give the impression that "Putin shares dangers with ordinary people". (COMMENT: This was always likely to be the case. The Kremlin is obsessed with manipulating Putin's image to suit the moment -- Putin the peacemaker, Putin the hardman, Putin the romantic, Putin the danger-seeker etc. And we've seen this particular ruse plenty of times before of Putin carrying out his duties despite the personal dangers.)

SHADOW TANKERS: Sweden pledged to tighten its checks on oil tankers sailing through the Baltic Sea to try to stamp out Russian "shadow fleets". It has said that it will target tankers sailing under the flags of smaller nations for inspection. (COMMENT: The EU's efforts to clamp down on Russia's shadow fleet feel like it has become a vital battleground. It's centred on the Baltic Sea because most of these tankers have to load up at a port near St Petersburg. The EU in May banned 189 "shadow tankers" that Russia has been using to skirt sanctions and export its oil. These "shadow tankers" often sail under African flags.)

EXPROPRIATING BUSINESSES: Putin signed a law on Friday that gives the Kremlin the right to expropriate businesses that fail to fulfil military contracts on time. The decree states that the Kremlin can suspend the rights of shareholders and install its own management if it decides that a company is not delivering. (COMMENT: This is another, serious, step towards a full war economy in Russia. Make no mistake, the Kremlin is now talking about seizing businesses if they don't meet its requirements. Interestingly, the decree also appears specifically aimed at aircraft and shipbuilders.)

AVIATION EMERGENCY: An S7 passenger jet flying from Moscow to Yakutsk made an emergency landing at Talakan airport in Siberia because of "a technical malfunction". (NOTE: This is the third emergency landing that S7 planes have made in the past couple of weeks. They were all made successfully and nobody was hurt but S7 has previously complained that Western sanctions have made it more difficult to maintain its aircraft.)

COAL CRISIS: Mikhail Mishustin, Russia's PM, approved additional financial support for Russia's coal sector to try to stop it from collapsing. (COMMENT: The additional financial support is a mixture of tax relief and a slight increase in subsidies. Most of the extra subsidies are around logistics costs. Coal underpins Russia's domestic economy, providing hundreds of thousands of jobs in remote regions but it has been crippled by Western sanctions and inflation. Several large coal companies have gone bankrupt or are threatening to. Given the scale of the "crisis", as even the Kremlin has described it, this emergency aid package is fairly limited. Other aid packages have previously been announced but to stop the coal sector from collapsing in Russia, the Kremlin will have to commit more cash.)

YOUTH PROPAGANDA: The Kremlin hosted a two-day festival for children at its main exhibition centre in Moscow over the weekend called 'The Festival of the First' that was heavily sprinkled with patriotic propaganda. Among the music, sports and business advice, were lessons on how to handle a Kalashnikov rifle, the reasons behind Russia's invasion of Ukraine, discussions on the patriotic duties expected of young Russian women and men and the merits of having a large and early family. A personal video message from Putin was also beamed across various screens at the opening ceremony. (COMMENT: This sort of heavy propaganda at children's events has become standard in Russia. Throughout Putin's 25-year reign in Russia, the Kremlin has targeted its youth but this has intensified since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.)

OIL PRICES: OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, on Sunday, agreed to release another 411,000 barrels of oil onto the market to punish overproducers and suppress oil prices. (COMMENT: This is the third month in a row that OPEC has flooded the oil market to suppress prices. This impacts Russia because a large proportion of its government earnings -- roughly a third -- is from oil and gas exports.)

SERBIA: Alexander Vucic, Serbia's president, promised on TV on Friday to increase checks on who Serbia supplies with weapons after Russia's intelligence services said that some of these weapons were then sent on to Ukraine. (COMMENT: This shows just how much influence Russia has over Serbia. Remember, too, that Vucic travelled to Moscow for Putin's military parade last month.)

POLAND: Karol Nawrocki of the conservative Law and Justice party won a presidential election in Poland. This was the Kremlin's preferred candidate as he has spoken out against Ukraine joining Nato. (NOTE: It was a close run race, with Nawrocki winning with 50.89% of the vote, just beating his rival. The Polish president is largely a ceremonial job and this is only a marginally important win for the Kremlin but from their point of view, they all count.)

NEWS MATRIX:

This is the Russia Morning Memo's new 'News Matrix'. It is designed to trigger discussion and analysis. Of the four news stories highlighted above, the 'Kremlin hands out coal subsidies' story is valued as 'slightly unimportant' because the size of the subsidies, in my opinion, felt too low to make much difference. The collapse of the coal sector in Russia is an important issue, but the subsidies are too low to save it – for now. Anyhow, the matrix will take some finessing. Please let me know if you have feedback.