0734GMT//Shoigu meets Kim; Putin talks to Trump
NORTH KOREA: Sergei Shoigu, the secretary of Russia's Security Council, met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un in Pyongyang. At their meeting, Kim pledged to "unconditionally" support Russia. (COMMENT: In many ways, Shoigu has become a personal envoy for Putin since he was shifted from his previous job as defence minister last year. This was Shoigu's second trip to North Korea in three months. The Kremlin has been eager to show just how grateful it is to North Korea for sending thousands of conscripts to fight Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region.)
PUTIN REJECTS CEASEFIRE: In his first public comments since Ukrainian drones popped out of truck containers in Siberia and the Arctic and destroyed several strategic bombers, Vladimir Putin called Ukraine a "terrorist state" and rejected any prospect of a ceasefire. (COMMENT: Putin spoke of the need for more "power", not peace. The audacious attack may have set back prospects of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Both the Russian rouble and the Moscow stock market fell after his comments.)
PUTIN-TRUMP PHONECALL: Putin and Donald Trump spoke on the telephone on Wednesday evening for between 70 - 75 minutes. Trump described it as "positive" but "not the kind of conversation that leads to immediate peace". Trump also said that Putin was planning a "very strong" response to the Ukrainian drone attacks on its strategic bombers. The Kremlin also described the telephone conversation as "positive". (COMMENT: This is the fourth time that Trump and Putin have spoken on the phone since Trump took over the White House in January. A few things stand out. This was a long conversation. It also appears to have been good-natured. This confirms the friendly relations between Trump and Putin. And then there is the timing. It's as if Trump telephoned Putin three days after Ukrainian drones destroyed a large part of his strategic bombing fleet to console him. Putin whinged that he had been taken by surprise and made to look stupid. Trump also whinged that he'd been taken by surprise.)
PUTIN-POPE PHONECALL: The Kremlin also said that Putin spoke to Pope Leo XIV for the first time since he was ordained in May. (COMMENT: This is all about cultivating Putin's image as a 'Peacemaker' for his domestic audience. The Kremlin's message was that Putin wants peace, whereas Ukraine just wants more war.)
NAVALNY BIRTHDAY: A handful of activists marked the birthday of dead opposition leader Alexei Navalny by placing flowers on his grave in Moscow. Eight activists were also detained in Novosibirsk for standing around a monument to political repression. Video showed dozens of riot police wearing helmets and wielding batons arresting middle-aged women in flowery summer dresses. (COMMENT: If ever there was a metaphor for the paranoia and overreaction of the Russian state, this might be it.)
CHECHNYA: Chechen heavies kidnapped Areg Shchepikhin, a Moscow-based blogger, from a cafe at a train station in central Moscow on Tuesday evening and dumped him in the boot of a black Mercedes with official number plates. In videos of the kidnapping, Russian police just looked on bewildered and mute. The kidnapping was apparently ordered by Adam Delimkhanov, Russian State Duma deputy and a close associate of Ramzan Kadyrov, the leader of Chechnya. It appears, from reports, that Shchepikhin had insulted Kadyrov, Chechnya and Islam and the Chechen leader wanted to exact a punishment. Shchepikhin appears to have been released after Russia's FSB stepped in. Photos after his release showed bruises across Shchepikhin's head, his nose and around his eyes. (COMMENT: This story is still playing out but it does appear to be another over-stepping of Chechen power in Moscow. Last year, Chechen thugs, on the orders of Kadyrov, attacked the Moscow HQ of the Wildberries online retailer in a business dispute. Two security guards were killed. The Kremlin doesn't mind gangster-style street politics in Chechnya but doesn't like them spilling over into Moscow. The problem it has is, how to rein in Kadyrov. It's a real source of tension and worry inside the Kremlin.)
INTEREST RATES: Russia's biggest business lobby group, the RSPP, lobbied for the Central Bank to cut interest rates at its monetary policy meeting on Friday. Alexander Shokhin, president of the RSPP, said on Wednesday that Russia's 21% interest rate was "bankrupting" business. (COMMENT: This is a high-profile intervention into Russia's interest rate debate. Analysts have said that the Central Bank does have room to cut interest rates because of the strong rouble but that it will probably keep them level for now.)
OIL AND GAS REVENUES: Revenue from oil and gas sales halved in May compared to April, Russia's finance ministry said on Wednesday. The Kremlin earned 512 billion roubles ($6.5 billion) in May on energy sales, also down by 36% from a year earlier. (COMMENT: This is important because oil and gas revenue is the Kremlin's biggest earner. Revenues are down because oil prices have softened and the rouble is strong.)
NEWS MATRIX:
Two important stories and one moderately important story dominate the News Matrix today. Putin's phone call with Trump, his fourth since January, was important. The timing, coming so shortly after the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's strategic bombers also feels important. The other important story is the drop in the Kremlin's oil and gas revenue in May. This is the engine that runs Rusisa's war economy. If this dries up, the Kremlin is in trouble.