0745GMT//Putin's 73rd birthday plans; Putin ally issues economic warning; 1,000 Russian soliders accused of murder

PUTIN ALLY ISSUES ECONOMIC WARNING: Valentina Matviyenko, chairwoman of the Russian Senate, warned on Monday that businesses in Russia's regions were collapsing at an "alarming rate" because of the increasingly tough economic conditions. "The rise in bankruptcies in the regions is extremely alarming. As one governor rightly said, this isn't bankruptcy anymore; it's practically the liquidation of enterprises," she said, according to press reports. (COMMENT: Matviyenko is an arch-Putin loyalist, so it's important to take note when she starts handing out these warnings. There have also been an increasing number of reports in the Russian media of wage arrears.)

INFLATION RISK: Russia's ministry of finance said on Monday that it expected a rise in VAT to 22% from 20% to only push up inflation by 1%. The VAT rise is planned for Jan. 1 and has been brought in specifically to pay for Russia's armies in Ukraine. (COMMENT: Most economists think that this assessment of the impact of the VAT rise on inflation is wishful thinking. They expect consumer prices to rise with VAT. Official inflation in Russia in September was 8%. In March, it had been just over 10%.)

MAJOR REFINERY HIT: Surgutneftegaz's Kirishinefteorgsintez (Kinef) near St Petersburg has stopped refining oil at one of its biggest units because of a Ukrainian drone attack, two industry insiders told Reuters. The Kinef refinery is one of the largest in Russia. It was attacked for the second time on Oct. 4. The Reuters sources said that it would take at least three weeks to repair the damage from the drone attack. (COMMENT: Ukraine has deliberately targeted Russian oil refineries to create a shortage of petrol. Hitting Kinef is an extension of this strategy.)

LONG-RANGE DRONE HIT: Ukrainian drones reached Tyumen in Siberia, 2,000km from Ukraine, for the first time. Reports said that the Antipinsky Oil Refinery was thought to be the target, although the drones failed to hit it. (COMMENT: This is, perhaps, the most far-reaching attack that Ukrainian drones have launched against a target in Russia and highlights the technological advances that Ukraine has made in its drone technology.)

RUSSIAN SOLDIERS ACCUSED OF MURDER: Nearly 1,000 Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine have been charged with murder since 2023 after returning to Russia, an opposition Russian news website reported by quoting court documents. (COMMENT: This high murder rate for ex-soldiers is a result of a lack of post-war care for soldiers and the release of ex-convicts after serving on the frontline. Unease has been rising in Russia with murderers and rapitists being released back into communities, often with a grudge. There are regular reports of murderers and rapists re-offending.)

PUTIN'S BIRTHDAY: It's Vladimir Putin's birthday today. He is 73 years old. Always keen to look like the workaholic leader, according to the Kremlin, Putin intends to spend his birthday at a series of meetings, including with Russia's Security Council. Alexander Lukashenko, Belarus' leader, has been quick off the mark with a congratulatory message, as have North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and Patriarch Kirill.