0756GMT//Witkoff to meet Putin on Wed; fringe towns in Russia are dying out
NUCLEAR MISSILE THREAT: The Kremlin said it may lift a moratorium on the deployment of land-based short and medium-range nuclear missiles after the US moved two nuclear-armed submarines closer to Russia. (COMMENT: This is part of the fallout from a Twitter spat between Donald Trump and Dmitry Medvedev, a former Russian president and the deputy head of Russia's Security Council. It's sabre rattling, from both sides – dangerous but also performative.)
WITKOFF TO MEET PUTIN: Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, hinted that Donald Trump's personal envoy Steve Witkoff would fly into Moscow for a meeting with Vladimir Putin ahead of a US deadline for Russia to resume Ukraine war peace negotiations. (COMMENT: Kremlin sources have said that Witkoff is expected in Moscow on Wednesday. This will be his first trip to Moscow since April.)
SOFT POWER INFLEUNCE PUSH: Russia's Presidential Administration is setting up a new department under Sergei Kiriyenko to improve the Kremlin's relations with "neighbouring countries". Kiriyenko is the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration and is one of Putin's most trusted lieutenants. A source in the Kremlin told the Kommersant newspaper that the unit would help Kremlin allies build "soft power" and accelerate "state building". (COMMENT: The Kremlin has already said that it is mounting an influence campaign under Kiriyenko in Armenia to stop its move towards the West. The new "soft power" Presidential Administration unit appears to be an extension of this policy. It hands Kiriyenko, who some have touted as a successor to Putin, extra powers to project Kremlin influence abroad.)
FURLOUGH FOR RAIL WORKERS: Russian Railways is forcing staff to take two unpaid days' holiday each month because a sharp decline in freight traffic since the start of the war has hit revenues, Russian media reported on Monday. (COMMENT: Freight traffic on Russia's railway system has dropped significantly since the start of the war, a reflection of the contraction in Russia's economy. It also shows how desperate the Kremlin is to maintain its facade that everything is under control by forcing workers to take holidays, rather than making them redundant.)
TERRORISM TRIAL STARTS: The trial of 19 men, mainly from Tajikistan, for killing 149 people in an attack at a concert in Moscow last year began on Monday in Moscow. The men appeared in a glass box, handcuffed and with their heads bowed. (NOTE: Half of the people killed in the concert hall died of smoke inhalation, partly because escape routes were blocked.) (COMMENT: Russian prosecutors have alleged that the attack was organised by the Ukrainian security services. Both the accused men and Ukraine have denied this. Migrant workers in Moscow, who are removed from their traditional family structures and often work in difficult conditions, are also vulnerable to being recruited by the Islamic State.)
KADYROV'S HEALTH: Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-backed warlord leader of Chechnya, released a video of himself at the end of last week training on an exercise bike in an apparent attempt to deflect speculation that he nearly drowned on holiday at a five-star resort in Bodrum, Turkey. (COMMENT: Kadyrov appeared visibly thinner in the video. His health is the focus of constant media attention.)
TRADE WITH INDIA: Trump promised to increase tariffs on India for continuing to buy Russian oil. (COMMENT: India has said that it will continue to buy Russian oil despite the US tariff threat. If this changes, then the Kremlin has another major problem.)
OIL REFINERY OUTPUT HALVED: The Novokuibyshevsk Oil Refinery in Ryazan has halved its output since a Ukrainian drone attack on Aug. 2, Reuters reported on Monday. This is the third-largest oil refinery in Russia. (COMMENT: The oil refinery is owned by Rosneft. Ukraine has targeted Russia's energy production infrastructure. Drone attacks have heavily impacted Russia's oil refinery output, increasing prices for petrol.)
FRINGE TOWNS DIE: 129 towns with a combined population of 3.4 million people in Russia's industrial heartlands could disappear as residents leave to find work and opportunities in bigger and more lively cities, Russian media reported on Monday. The pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper reported that the most "under threat" towns are "peripheral cities in depressed regions" – particularly northern cities built on coal, steel and timber industries. (COMMENT: This is another reflection of the economic pressure that Russia is under, particularly in its peripheral industrial cities. Russian industries have recorded losses since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. The coal mining industry has been particularly hard hit.)